Episode 42: The 2020 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle with Gartner Analyst Brian Burke
Updated: Nov 20, 2020
In this episode, I'm excited to be speaking with my former colleague Brian Burke, VP Research Analyst for Gartner about the latest Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle that he is a co-author on. Technology is evolving faster than ever and having reliable tools to understand these changes are vital to organizations on their digital journeys. This is where the Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle comes in, it is the most popular hype cycle by far and we get to chat with the expert to understand how Gartner identifies technologies, selects them for the ET Hype Cycle, and the key points you need to understand. Remember to check out “Gartner Hype Cycles Explained” and “Demystifying the Gartner 2020 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle” to go deep on the Gartner Hype Cycles!
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In this Episode 00:00 - Intro
03:30 - About Brian Burke
05:30 - How has non-technical trends influenced the Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle
07:40 - What is the Emerging Technologies (ET) Hype Cycle
08:53 - How is the ET Hype Cycle used in the industry?
11:40 - How the ET Hype Cycle can be used as an input into the innovation programs
13:40 - Misconceptions reading the ET Hype Cycle
16:38 - What are the top factors or tipping points that drove the ET HC this year?
20:10 - Where can people find the technologies that don’t make the “cut”
21:28 - Remove the Hype from the Hype Cycle
22:30 - Criteria for the selection of the technologies that appear on the Hype Cycle
25:40 - How has the many (economic crisis in many nations, global pandemic, social unrest, etc.) non-technical factors influence the 2020 ET Hype Cycle?
30:00 - GE Healthpass
31:44 - Why near term technologies are on the ET Hype Cycle
34:38 - What are the technologies that you are most excited about?
36:10 - The role of privacy and ethics in the ET Hype Cycle
37:28 - Additional ET Hype Cycle trends that were defined and why they are important for people to understand?
41:25 - The difference between the Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle and the top 10 Strategic Trends report
43:40 - What are the top aspects of this conversation that you want people to take away from this conversation?
46:45 - If listeners have questions how do they get ahold of you or someone at Gartner?
About the 2020 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle
The 30 must-watch technologies on the Gartner Inc. Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2020 include technologies that enable a composable enterprise, aspire to regain society's trust in technology, and alter the state of your brain.
“Emerging technologies are disruptive by nature, but the competitive advantage they provide is not yet well known or proven in the market. Most will take more than five years, and some more than 10 years, to reach the Plateau of Productivity. But some technologies on the Hype Cycle will mature in the near term and technology innovation leaders must understand the opportunities for these technologies, particularly those with transformational or high impact,” said Brian Burke, research vice president at Gartner.
The Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies is unique among most Gartner Hype Cycles because it garners insights from more than 1,700 technologies into a succinct set of 30 emerging technologies and trends. This Hype Cycle specifically focuses on the set of technologies that show promise in delivering a high degree of competitive advantage over the next five to 10 years.
Five Emerging Technology Trends
Digital me — Technology is becoming increasingly integrated with people to create new opportunities for digital representations of ourselves, such as digital passports and social distancing technologies. Digital twins of humans provide models of individuals that can represent people in both the physical and digital space. The way people interact with the digital world is also moving beyond screens and keyboards to use a combination of interaction modalities (e.g. voice, vision, gesture), and even directly altering our brains.
The technologies to watch include social distancing technologies, health passports, digital twin of the person, citizen twin, multiexperience and 2-Way BMI (brain machine interface).
Composite architectures — The composable enterprise is designed to respond to rapidly changing business needs with packaged business capabilities built upon a flexible data fabric. A composite architecture is implemented with solutions composed of packaged business capabilities. Built-in intelligence is decentralized and extends outward to edge devices and the end user.
To become a more agile organization, the following technologies should be tracked: composable enterprise, packaged business capabilities, data fabric, private 5G, embedded artificial intelligence (AI) and low-cost single-board computers at the edge.
Formative AI — This is a set of emerging AI and related technologies that can dynamically change to respond to situational variances. Some of these technologies are used by application developers and UX designers to create new solutions by using AI enabled tools. Other technologies enable the development of AI models that can evolve dynamically to adapt over time. The most advanced can generate entirely novel models that are targeted to solve specific problems.
Enterprises looking to explore the boundaries of AI should consider AI-assisted design, AI augmented development, ontologies and graphs, small data, composite AI, adaptive ML, self-supervised learning, generative AI and generative adversarial networks.
Algorithmic trust —Trust models based on responsible authorities are being replaced by algorithmic trust models to ensure privacy and security of data, source of assets and identity of individuals and things. Algorithmic trust helps to ensure that organizations will not be exposed to the risk and costs of losing the trust of their customers, employees and partners.
Emerging technologies tied to algorithmic trust include secure access service edge (SASE), differential privacy, authenticated provenance, bring your own identity, responsible AI and explainable AI.
Beyond silicon — For more than four decades, Moore’s Law (the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit (IC) doubles about every two years) has guided the IT industry. As technology approaches the physical limits of silicon, new advanced materials are creating breakthrough opportunities to make technologies faster and smaller.
Critical technologies to be considered include DNA computing, biodegradable sensors and carbon-based transistors.
More detailed analysis on the Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2020 is available in the Gartner webinar “The 5 Major Trends of Gartner's 2020 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle.”
The Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies 2020 introduces more than 20 technologies that are new to Gartner’s Hype Cycles, making it the go-to source to understand the newest technology and trends. Gartner clients can read more in the report “Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2020.”
About Brian Burke
Brian Burke is Research VP for Enterprise Architecture and Technology Innovation with more than 20 years in that role. Mr. Burke's research focuses primarily on enterprise architecture, emerging technologies and innovation management. He is the chairperson for Gartner 2019 IT Symposium/Xpo in South Africa and he is the author of the 2014 book "Gamify: How Gamification Motivates People to Do Extraordinary Things."
Mr. Burke has a broad and diverse background in technology and strategy, having more than 30 years of experience in the industry. He joined Gartner in April 2005 with the acquisition of Meta Group, where he had worked for seven years. Prior to that, he held senior management positions with responsibility for the development of IT strategy and architecture and the implementation of emerging technologies.
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On-Demand & Upcoming Webinars
The 5 Major Trends of Gartner's 2020 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle 30 September 2020