Episode 44: The 2020 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle Panel Part 1
In part 1 of a 3 part series, I'm excited to try something a little different. We will start with a virtual bourbon tasting with a panel of innovation thought leaders and then discuss the Gartner 2020 Emerging TechnologiesHype Cycle. Mike Fulton from Nationwide Insurance and an Adjunct Professor at Ohio State University, Arun Ghosh from KPMG, Todd Federman from North Coast Ventures, and myself from Microsoft will all cover the many facets of the technology innovation industry through this energetic, dynamic, and insightful panel discussion.
Remember to check out ”The 2020 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle with Gartner Analyst Brian Burke”, “Gartner Hype Cycles Explained” and “Demystifying the Gartner 2020 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle” to go deep on the Gartner Hype Cycles!
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In this Episode 00:00 - Panel Intros
07:00 - Does bourbon have to come from Kentucky?
11:30 - About the Gartner Hype Cycle
13:30 - Mike’s initial impressions
16:15 - Arun’s initial impressions
18:44 - Does a yearly release of the hype cycle cause problems?
21:00 - The role of non-technical drivers
23:35 - The Emerging Tech Hype Cycle missed the challenges of the Global Pandemic
25:40 - Todd BLOWS our minds with his insights…
29:34 - March 2020, the inflection point for digital transformation
32:20 - Technologies that were accelerated by the pandemic
34:50 - Quantum Computing dropped from the hype cycle… Big Mistake
37:40 - The randomness of additional technologies
41:00 - Don’t start with technology trends, start with the need
46:10 - Asia is moving faster than any other area in the world
About the 2020 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle
The 30 must-watch technologies on the Gartner Inc. Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2020 include technologies that enable a composable enterprise, aspire to regain society's trust in technology, and alter the state of your brain.
“Emerging technologies are disruptive by nature, but the competitive advantage they provide is not yet well known or proven in the market. Most will take more than five years, and some more than 10 years, to reach the Plateau of Productivity. But some technologies on the Hype Cycle will mature in the near term and technology innovation leaders must understand the opportunities for these technologies, particularly those with transformational or high impact,” said Brian Burke, research vice president at Gartner.
The Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies is unique among most Gartner Hype Cycles because it garners insights from more than 1,700 technologies into a succinct set of 30 emerging technologies and trends. This Hype Cycle specifically focuses on the set of technologies that show promise in delivering a high degree of competitive advantage over the next five to 10 years.
Five Emerging Technology Trends
Digital me — Technology is becoming increasingly integrated with people to create new opportunities for digital representations of ourselves, such as digital passports and social distancing technologies. Digital twins of humans provide models of individuals that can represent people in both the physical and digital space. The way people interact with the digital world is also moving beyond screens and keyboards to use a combination of interaction modalities (e.g. voice, vision, gesture), and even directly altering our brains.
The technologies to watch include social distancing technologies, health passports, digital twin of the person, citizen twin, multiexperience and 2-Way BMI (brain machine interface).
Composite architectures — The composable enterprise is designed to respond to rapidly changing business needs with packaged business capabilities built upon a flexible data fabric. A composite architecture is implemented with solutions composed of packaged business capabilities. Built-in intelligence is decentralized and extends outward to edge devices and the end user.
To become a more agile organization, the following technologies should be tracked: composable enterprise, packaged business capabilities, data fabric, private 5G, embedded artificial intelligence (AI) and low-cost single-board computers at the edge.
Formative AI — This is a set of emerging AI and related technologies that can dynamically change to respond to situational variances. Some of these technologies are used by application developers and UX designers to create new solutions by using AI enabled tools. Other technologies enable the development of AI models that can evolve dynamically to adapt over time. The most advanced can generate entirely novel models that are targeted to solve specific problems.
Enterprises looking to explore the boundaries of AI should consider AI-assisted design, AI augmented development, ontologies and graphs, small data, composite AI, adaptive ML, self-supervised learning, generative AI and generative adversarial networks.
Algorithmic trust —Trust models based on responsible authorities are being replaced by algorithmic trust models to ensure privacy and security of data, source of assets and identity of individuals and things. Algorithmic trust helps to ensure that organizations will not be exposed to the risk and costs of losing the trust of their customers, employees and partners.
Emerging technologies tied to algorithmic trust include secure access service edge (SASE), differential privacy, authenticated provenance, bring your own identity, responsible AI and explainable AI.
Beyond silicon — For more than four decades, Moore’s Law (the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit (IC) doubles about every two years) has guided the IT industry. As technology approaches the physical limits of silicon, new advanced materials are creating breakthrough opportunities to make technologies faster and smaller.
Critical technologies to be considered include DNA computing, biodegradable sensors and carbon-based transistors.
More detailed analysis on the Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2020 is available in the Gartner webinar “The 5 Major Trends of Gartner's 2020 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle.”
The Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies 2020 introduces more than 20 technologies that are new to Gartner’s Hype Cycles, making it the go-to source to understand the newest technology and trends. Gartner clients can read more in the report “Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2020.”
About the Panel
Arun Ghosh is an industry-recognized management consultant with 20+ years of experience, who is passionate about uncovering value for organizations by using innovative approaches to evolve corporate strategy, including leveraging blockchain, analytics, automation and artificial intelligence to achieve enterprise-wide transformation. My strategy, analytics and technology consulting services expertise covers the high-tech, industrial manufacturing and life sciences industries. Day-to-day, I work with business leaders to help them understand and apply blockchain to solve their specific business challenges related to efficiency, transparency and growth.
Mike Fulton is an award winning senior technology executive with global experience within several multi-billion-dollar institutions; offers corporate leadership, innovative mindset, strategic viewpoint, strong network and deep understanding of every aspect of a digital operating model backed by proven track record demonstrating technology strategic planning, enterprise architecture, team building proficiencies and the ability to deliver rapid adoption of technology that matters.
Todd Federman is an early-stage technology investor. Managing Director of the US's 5th largest angel fund, and a specialty venture capital fund investing primarily in B2B, SaaS, early-stage and Series A ventures. Chairman and/or board member of several early-stage software companies.